LANSING, Mich. — Democrat Jocelyn Benson holds a six-point edge in the race for Michigan governor, while the state’s open U.S. Senate seat remains close to a coin flip, according to a Marist poll released Wednesday.
Among likely voters, Benson, the secretary of state, drew 51% to 45% for Republican U.S. Rep. John James. Her margin grows to 11 points among all registered voters, close to the 12-point lead she held in Marist’s September survey. She also has about a seven-point lead with independents, and 61% of likely voters, whatever their own choice, expect her to win.
The Senate race is tighter. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 48% among likely voters. Among registered voters El-Sayed is ahead by seven points, about where he stood a month ago, and he leads 50% to 44% among likely independent voters. A narrow majority of likely voters, 51%, believe El-Sayed will win.
The national mood is a factor. President Donald Trump, who has endorsed both James and Rogers, has a 42% job approval rating among Michigan likely voters, with 57% disapproving. On the generic ballot for Congress, Democrats lead 52% to 46%. A plurality, 44%, describe their congressional vote as mainly a vote against Trump, compared with 18% who call it a vote for him.
Pocketbook worries run deep. About 43% of likely voters say their family finances have worsened over the past year, 40% say they are about the same and 16% say they have improved. Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to report falling behind, 61% to 23%.
The candidates for governor are offering different answers on costs. James has proposed phasing out the state income tax, repealing Michigan’s clean energy law and joining a federal education tax credit. Benson has made health care costs central to her campaign and called for a caregiver tax credit and free pre-K for 3-year-olds. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited.
Marist surveyed 1,185 registered Michigan voters from Oct. 15 to Oct. 18 by phone, text and online. The likely voter results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. Absentee voting is already underway, statewide early in-person voting begins Saturday, Oct. 24, and Election Day is Nov. 3.
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