LANSING, Mich. — A new NOAA December-through-February outlook tilts Michigan toward a milder, slightly drier winter than average, with the Climate Prediction Center leaning on a strong El Niño expected to continue into the season.
Temperature maps give the entire state a 50 to 60 percent chance of finishing warmer than normal. That lean shrinks the odds of a colder-than-normal winter compared with a flat three-way split.
NOAA scientists with the Climate Prediction Center update El Niño status on the second Thursday of each month, issuing watches when conditions favor development and advisories when El Niño is already under way. Strong El Niño winters have been uncommon since 1950, but the pattern often feeds mild Pacific air into the West and on toward the Great Lakes.
Precipitation maps put Michigan in a slight below-normal moisture lean, with the busier storm track favored farther south and along the East Coast. Summaries of the product described an easier or lighter winter by Michigan standards, not a season without snow.
Outlooks are odds, not promises. Short-range systems can still dump heavy lake-effect snow even when the seasonal tilt is mild.
Filed under: Lansing MI Weather News